Two new papers become available on Elsevier, stemming from newTRENDs work:
- A material flow model of steel and concrete in EU buildings: National differences of the service-stock-flow nexus
- Reduction of gas demand through changes in heating behaviour in households: Novel insights from modelling and empirical evidence
Meta Thurid Lotz, Andrea Herbst, Andreas Müller, Lukas Kranzl, Jesus Rosales Carreon, Ernst Worrell,
A material flow model of steel and concrete in EU buildings: National differences of the service-stock-flow nexus, Cleaner Waste Systems, 2024, 100153, ISSN 2772-9125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clwas.2024.100153. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772912524000253)
Abstract: To meet climate and resource efficiency targets in the European Union, it is advantageous to reduce material production and waste generation related to buildings. Yet, the feasibility of reducing the demand for construction materials across member states remains uncertain. Thus, this paper aims to assess challenges for building material demand reduction in the member states based on national differences in the service-stock-flow nexus. To achieve this objective, the paper introduces a stock-driven material flow analysis and material intensity database for steel and cement in residential and commercial buildings until 2050. The results are contrasted with structural variables to pinpoint challenges for material demand reduction within prospective transformation pathways. While overall material inflows increase by more than 50%, individual countries stand out due to lower specific material demand. In fact, the specific steel use is around 23% lower in new single-family houses in Northern compared to Southern Europe as more than half of the residential buildings rely on timber for above-ground construction. Nevertheless, the overall material stocks are lowest in Southern Europe due to a per capita floor space demand below the European average of 45 square meters in 2050. In general, the modelled material outflows are lower than the inflows but are still increasing over time. Furthermore, the national material stocks and flows correlate with market value and population density. This implies that a growing share of material production and waste generation are caused by the construction of buildings. Although the transfer of the identified material demand reduction potentials to other member states is thinkable, this is challenged by continuous economic growth and socioeconomic trends. Consequently, it is decisive to decouple service and material demand. Strategies related to a circular economy demand can contribute to this by reducing building material production and waste generation without affecting the service provision. Future research should quantify the impact of such circular economy strategies to develop exploitation strategies for achieving the climate and resource efficiency targets.
With the release of this publication, we add to our newTRENDs website a new report: Focus study report on decarbonisation and circular economy in industry, check it out!
Mahsa Bagheri, Maksymilian Kochański, Lukas Kranzl, Katarzyna Korczak, Lukas Mayrhofer, Andreas Müller, Ece Özer, Swaroop Rao, Reduction of gas demand through changes in heating behaviour in households: Novel insights from modelling and empirical evidence, Energy and Buildings,
Volume 318, 2024, 114257, ISSN 0378-7788, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2024.114257.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778824003736)
Abstract: The geopolitical situation and the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine have led to proposals for immediate reduction in energy consumption within the European Union (EU). The REPowerEU Plan of the European Commission proposes behavioural changes as short-term measures to rapidly reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and oil. This paper investigates the energy saving potential resulting from changes in household heating behaviour. Through a comparison of modelling results with results of the analysis of empirical data collected in a survey of households in four EU Member States (Germany, the Netherlands, Greece, and Poland), the paper examines the adequacy of the short-term measures proposed by the EU and the instruments needed to leverage such measures and increase their potential impact. Although the reported changes in heating behaviour lead to a 2.0 % to 3.5 % reduction in residential gas demand in the countries studied, the study recognises that the EU targets for reducing the gas demand will not be met under current regulatory conditions, and considers the energy savings observed in this paper and in the literature as a short-term response to unexpected circumstances. The paper proposes a policy package to transform these responses into the long-term behavioural changes needed to achieve climate targets. Promoting uptake of household technical infrastructure, providing financial support and implementing information campaigns are suggested as effective approaches to achieving savings targets.
Keywords: Gas demand; Energy crisis; Heating behaviour; Households; Short-term measures; Policy
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